Labour plan fightback after more dissapointment

Political Producer Ben Burton blogs from Parliament

Massive disappointment for Labour MPs in the South and South-East after the stunning Conservative victory in Crewe and Nantwich.

That kind of swing repeated at a General Election would see most of them pondering life outside of the Commons. A re-shuffle from the Prime Minister still looks unlikely with Gordon Brown hoping to move on as quickly as possible.

However a change of personnel could form part of the fightback and the help the Labour party to grab hold of the agenda.

Already some are tipping the Southampton Itchen MP for a move.

John Denham has kept a relatively low profile at the Department for Innovation, University and Skills and MPs from all sides of the house often talk about him taking on a bigger role.

Some are talking about Defence where Des Browne hasn't had the easiest of times particularly as he has to look after Scotland at the same time. However after he resigned over the conflict in Iraq that looks unlikely.

More credible is the belief amongst others that the former Home Office Minister is heading back to his old department to take over from Jacqui Smith.

Expect the rumours and gossip to only get louder.

Libs Dems struggle for the limelight

Politcal Producer Ben Burton blogs from Parliament

Many Liberal Democrats complain that their party doesn’t get a fair share of coverage in the media. In our part of the world in particular - whilst they only hold a handful of seats - they do have a substantial number of voters and believe they deserve more attention.

But with all of Gordon’s trouble leader Nick Clegg (pictured right) isn’t leading the TV bulletins and all eyes are on Crewe and Nantwich. The ever growing consensus is that the Tories will finally win a by-election in a seat they don’t already hold, their first gain from Labour in 30 years.

Normally the Lib Dems cause a storm when a by-election is called and few would write them off. But this time around thanks to the Tories things don’t look so good and the Lib Dems might be wise to not go courting any more publicity.

They’ve imposed a candidate on the association there and are still hoping that they can mop up all those voters fed up with Labour and some that can’t bring themselves to vote for the Tories.

But things don’t look good.

David Cameron’s Conservatives appear to be running away with things and Britain’s third party could be left with a very small share of the vote.

Nick Clegg hasn’t had the best of times since he took the top job. This contest could prove a major test for the young leader and if it’s a bad result he won’t want to be answering too many questions.

If their poll ratings don’t improve (they went down in overall vote share in the local elections at the beginning of the month) even former leadership contender Chris Huhne could be seriously worried about his future employment.

His majority in Eastleigh is less than 600 hundred!

MP John Denham rallies troubled Labour

Political Producer Ben Burton blogs from Parliament

It’s no secret that the vast majority of Labour MPs in the South and South-East are a tad concerned about holding on to their jobs.

And it’s made even more unpleasant when they see poll ratings as bad as those which have dominated the weekend’s papers. Many of them are on such small majorities that it only needs a small swing to the Tories for them to be quickly adding to the unemployment figures after polling day.

However one of the region’s more experienced campaigners believes that Labour aren’t yet finished. Not for the first time John Denham MP (Southampton Itchen and pictured right) has returned to his “Southern Comfort” theme.

And Mr Denham can certainly draw a crowd. A large meeting room in Portcullis House – the modern extension to Parliament, built above Westminster tube station – was packed to hear his message: Labour can still win in the South. If they don’t, he said, there’s no way they’ll stay in power. It would be close to impossible for Labour to form a majority at the next General Election without a decent clutch of seats from our part of the world.

As the only Cabinet member with a seat in the South he highlights issues like Inheritance Tax and housing as part of the key to bringing the undecided voters back on board as David Cameron’s Conservatives continue breathing down their necks. Many Labour party members from across our region travelled to London to hear what the Secretary of State for Innovation, Universities and Skills had to say but one subject was surprisingly absent. Despite his recent troubles no one at the meeting wanted to point the finger of blame at the Prime Minister.

Now, the thought of anyone actually trying to kick Gordon Brown out of Number 10 still looks unlikely. But many MPs know that, regardless of policies and ideas, the PM will be an enormous factor - good or bad - when a General Election does come around.

John Denham has called on his party to do more to understand hard working people in the South and South-East who feel they’re being ignored and he says Labour must develop a clearer vision.
The Southampton MP is highly respected in Westminster. His principled resignation from the Blair government over Iraq won him many admirers. His ideas will get a broad audience.

But the government’s problems over the 10 pence tax debacle still rumble on and not for the first time a by-election could set the political weather for months to come. Voters go to the polls in Crewe & Nantwich in ten days time. A 10 per cent swing to the Tories would give them an historic victory and if repeated come a General Election would see almost every Labour seat in the South and South-East turn blue.

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